/ COMPASS – Navigating Strategic Partnerships /
Involves the realms of politics, security, and economics, measuring and assessing risks and opportunities within these pivotal partnerships. Explore the dynamic interplay of diplomatic maneuvers, security dynamics, and economic collaborations, offering a comprehensive understanding of Serbia’s strategic navigation amidst the evolving global landscape.
/ Project Methodology /
The main objective of the Contributing to Modern Partnerships: Assessments of Sino-EU-Serbian Relations (COMPASS) project is to assess the main risks in relations between Serbia and two of its key international partners, the European Union and China, in three areas: politics, security, and economics.
The area of politics encompasses the repercussions and influences of contingencies such as bilateral and multilateral agreements, official meetings, visits by political dignitaries, joint statements, and declarations. Additionally, it includes the practical effects and consequences of these actions and official documents affecting relations between entities, such as legislative acts and governmental decrees.
In the area of security, the focus is placed on the interactions involving military officials, the engagement of Serbian Armed Forces in EU-led civil and military
missions, arms trades, joint military exercises, shifts in armed forces posture, military cooperation agreements, and the ramifications of legislation related to security and defense.
The economic area revolves around the various dimensions of economic collaboration between Serbia and both the EU and China. This includes grants, loans, bilateral trade agreements, foreign direct investments, collaborative infrastructural projects, and the exploration of the economic effects arising from the cooperation with these two actors on Serbia’s economy.Taken together, the three areas offer a comprehensive overview of the risks Serbia’s navigation of its strategic partnerships with the EU and China entails.
/ The main analytical variable of the project is the foreign policy position of Serbia in the international system /
That position is primarily influenced and shaped by Serbia’s relations with key international actors and its foreign policy choices that impact these relations in the three analyzed areas. These key actors are the EU, the United States, Russia, and China. Their importance is recognized in Serbia’s foreign policy establishment which relies on the Four Pillar foreign policy doctrine that puts focus exactly on building stronger relationships with each of these four actors. This approach to foreign policy is determined by the global and regional position Serbia occupies in the international system.
Considering the outlined situation, the analysis will center on Serbia’s interactions with two of the four pivotal international strategic partners: the EU and China. On one hand, membership in the EU is the proclaimed goal of Serbia’s foreign policy, the EU is Serbia’s leading economic partner and geographically most proximate of the four pillars of its foreign policy, and thus most relevant in the political and security domain as well. On the other hand, China’s influence on the international system is on the rise, and its partnership with Serbia is being constantly developed and strengthened, evolving from an economic area to also produce significant results in the political and security areas. Temporally, the analysis starts from the year 2013, a crucial juncture marked by the European Council’s endorsment of the European Commission’s recommendation to open negotiations with Serbia, as well as the year China initiated the Belt and Road Initiative.
The analytical spotlight will be placed on the years 2024 and 2025, coinciding with the project’s active implementation. The main conclusions relating to these two years, as well as subsequent developments and their implications on the risks inherent in Serbia’s relations with the EU and China, will be addressed in the annual COMPASS yearbook, offering an ongoing exploration of the Serbian attempts to navigate its strategic partnerships.
The overall theoretical approach is based on the appliance of the concept of strategic hedging on the Serbian foreing policy. Strategic hedging is defined as “behaviour in which a country seeks to offset risks by pursuing multiple policy options that are intended to produce mutually counteracting effects, under the situation of high-uncertainties and high-stakes” (Kuik 2008). This strategy is used to lessen the possible danger stemming from a decision to improve relations with one of the great powers or key regional actors and thus negatively impacting the interests of other powers. However, beside the advantages, the use of hedging strategy brings its own set of risks which are reflected in political, security, and economics areas. The starting theoretical premise in the research on the relations of Serbia with the EU and China and the existing and potential future risks is that Serbia uses hedging in order to develop positive and beneficial bilateral relations both with the EU and China.
/ The COMPASS Platform /
The COMPASS platform serves as the central hub for comprehensive analysis and results stemming from the project. It encompasses a database containing all contingencies identified for research, along with their respective impact on Serbia’s foreign policy position within the international system. The appropriate contingencies are chosen thorugh the extensive literature review and content analysis of the developments in Serbia’s relations with the EU and China in the politics, security and economics areas in the analyed period (starting from 2013). They are accordingly classified in one of the three research areas, with further concretization through assortment into one of several sub-categories within each area. The possibility for a single contingency to be assorted in more that one research area category (politics, security and economics) or more than one sub-category is allowed.
The analytical core of the project revolves around the application of a risk assessment matrix on the identified contingencies. Each contingency undergoes evaluation using a risk assessment matrix, where the X-axis gauges the likelihood of the risk, and the Y-axis assesses the consequences it may entail. This systematic approach categorizes contingencies into distinct sections within the overall COMPASS risk framework. For a detailed understanding of each category on these axes and the explanation of the overall COMPASS risk system, refer to the section titled “Assessing the Risk for Serbia’s Foreign, Security, and Economic Policy.” The resulting classification of contingencies is accessible to the public and easily searchable on the COMPASS platform. The platform includes a search by filter option that displays contingencies assorted in the categories and sub-categories corresponding to the selected filters. Detailed explanation of the platform’s characteristics is presented in the section titled “COMPASS Dataset Codebook”.
The outcomes of the research conducted during the first and second years of project implementation (2024 and 2025) will be showcased in the COMPASS Yearbook. This publication will provide a comprehensive overview of important developments and events that influence the risks in Serbian relations with the EU and China across the areas of politics, security, and economics. However, the COMPASS Yearbook, as a new annual publication by the IIPE, will persist beyond the project’s completion. It will encapsulate the research findings for each subsequent year, stemming from a continuous development of the COMPASS database with new insights.
/ Measuring Overall COMPASS Risk /
Assessing the risk for Serbia’s foreign, security, and economic policy
Economic risk
A situation or development that arises and has potential to negatively impact state’s economic stability.
Political risk
A situation or development that arises and has potential to negatively impact state’s national interests, international relations and foreign policy goals.
Security risk
A situation or development that arises and has potential to negatively impact state’s security interests and overall defence level.
Contingency
An event or an action that can inflence the rise of risks in areas of politics, security or economics.
Overall COMPASS Risk
A measure indicating the intersection between the potential consequences and the likelihood that a contingency could affect three distinct areas of Serbia’s position in the international system: politics, security, and economics.
Serbia’s strategic partnerships
Relations between Serbia and key international actors defined as four pillars of its foreign policy: the US, the EU, China, and Russia. Changes in relations with any of these actors significantly influence Serbia’s international position in areas of politics, security, and economics.
Hedging theory
Behaviour in which a country seeks to offset risks by pursuing multiple policy options that are intended to produce mutually counteracting effects, under the situation of high-uncertainties and high-stakes (Kuik 2008).
Delphi method
An iterative, anonymous, group-based process for eliciting and aggregating opinion on a topic to explore the existence of consensus among experts” (Khodyakov et al. 2023).
COMPASS Project captures contingencies occurring as of January 2024 onwards on annual basis. However, COMPASS Dataset includes data spanning January 2023 – December 2023 indexed in COMPASS Dataset Retroactive (See more in Codebook).
/ Overall COMPASS Risk /
Overall COMPASS Risk is a measure indicating the intersection between the potential consequences and the likelihood that a contingency could affect three distinct areas of Serbia’s position in the international system: politics, security, and economics.
The risk assessment is based on the project team’s evaluation using the aforementioned criteria for consequences and likelihood assessment, as well as the regularities and patterns identified throughout the research analysis. It is further strengthened by taking into account the results of the Delphi method and public opinion surveys. This approach minimizes the arbitrariness of decisions in assigning each contingency to one of the overall COMPASS risk sections.
The risk assessment for each contingency is grounded in the defined methodology, detailed in the previous section titled “Project Methodology”. The resulting assortment of each contingency is the outcome of the application of this methodology on every case in the moment the risk assessment is conducted.
Simplified Risk Assessment Matrix
/ Extreme – Critical Risk (Purple) /
The most critical risk for the values embedded in Serbia’s foreign, security, or economic policies. Critical/extreme risks that would involve catastrophic consequences and are, based on current available information undoubtedly certain to occur in the near or mid-term future.
Due to its significance, such risks are to be analysed in-depth with their background, motives, specifics, alternative scenarios, and potential mitigation solutions. Those risks pose an imminent threat to the geopolitical stability of Serbia and have the potential to cause severe and irreversible damage to its foreign relations or security or economic system.
/ High Risk (Red) /
High risk constitute a real and significant risk for Serbia’s position in international system. They have the potential to cause considerable harm if left unaddressed. Risk that would have significantly impact and has a legitimate chance to occur, has a big probability or will occur with great certainty, as well as a contingency tied risk that would have severe and widespread negative impacts and has a legitimate chance to occur.
Contingencies associated with high risks will be thoroughly examined and explained, inculding the projection of repercussions for Serbia and its international position.
/ Moderate Risk (Orange) /
Moderate risks constitute measurable threat for Serbia’s three areas of its foreign policy. While they may not cause immediate harm, they still require attention to prevent escalation.that would cause moderate consequences and is to occur with low, medium, high or extreme likelihood, as well as a contingency tied risk that would cause serious or catastrophic consequences and whose likelihood to occur is low.
Contingencies posing a moderate risk will be further explained and analyzed while their consequences on Serbia will be noted and presented, but without the detailed elaboration.
/ Low Risk (Yellow) /
Low risks would cause low consequences and its likelihood is low, medium, high or extreme, as well as a contingency tied risk that would have moderate, serious or catastrophic consequences and is unlikely to occur.
They are typically manageable and may not require immediate action but still warrant monitoring. Low-risk contingencies, given their low likelihood and the possibility of effective mitigation with reasonable effort, will only be listed and briefly described.
/ No Risk (Green) /
Contingency tied risk that would involve minimal or none consequences regardless of likelihood, as well as a contingency tied risk that would cause low consequences and is unlikely. These scenarios are stable and do not require immediate attention or mitigation efforts.
Since the no risk contingencies are in practical terms least relevant, they do not need additional analysis and as such will only be listed and appropriately categorized.
/ COMPASS Dataset Codebook /
Download the latest version of COMPASS Dataset Codebook Cite the Codebook as:
/ Events to Follow /
In this aspect of the project, a systematic approach will be implemented to monitor events crucial for Serbia in the upcoming year. These encompass a wide range of geopolitical, security, and economic developments, including key elections in significant states, current and potential armed conflicts, economic risks such as fluctuations in global markets and trade tensions, major international summits, and significant anniversaries relevant to Serbia’s history and geopolitical context.
Monitoring efforts will involve proactive tracking, data collection, and analysis of relevant sources to provide timely insights into the potential impact of these events on Serbia’s foreign, security, and economic policy landscape. Through closely monitoring these key events, valuable perspectives on their implications for Serbia’s strategic positioning and policy priorities will be offered.In December of each ongoing year, up to 10 trends and major events for the next year will be identified and presented.